Introduction
It might seem like a weird topic to discuss in a personal finance blog, but nuclear war is a real threat to our world, and our financial wealth is affected by the threat itself, and the event, should it happen.
It should be noted that I am not presenting a doomsday preppers’ guide. There are better resources for that sort of thing. In this article I will instead focus on nuclear war and how it will affect the individual with special note on how to recover after the event.
While nuclear war is the greatest threat, localized catastrophic events are more certain. Preparing for a certainty is the only valid option. Climate change is changing the world for everyone. A current war in Ukraine could boil over into a nuclear exchange, limited or full-scale.
It might seem illogical to worry about wealth in the event of nuclear war, but if anyone is to survive an economy will develop. Forms of money will need to be devised. Government, or at least some type of governing, will be needed.
The aftermath of a full-scale nuclear exchange will leave a world where life for people will be short, brutish, and hard. That does not mean there will not be better days. It does mean that there are issues nobody is talking about, And that is where we will begin.
Prelude to War
There are four ways a nuclear war will begin.
Scenario 1
Nuclear war will be a surprise if it is triggered by an accident, error, or misinterpretation. The sirens will sound, but there will be no time to prepare in such an event. One day things will seem fine and then, without warning, the firestorm.
There have been close calls in the past. Birds and a faulty computer chip are some of the culprits that almost ended the world as we know it.
A Norwegian scientific probe launched in 1995 had Russian President Boris Yeltsin activate the nuclear briefcase. If Yeltsin would have been inpatient, unwilling to wait for confirmation on where the launch vehicle was headed, we would be 30 years into a nuclear landscape as you read.
Scenario 2
Scenario 2 is what many view as the traditional trigger for a nuclear war.
In this common view, there would be a lead up to the event. Threat would become greater and more frequent with rhetoric decidedly acid.
We have seen some of this from Russian President Vladimir Putin. A ramping up of nuclear rhetoric is a disconcerting trend. If Russia were to suffer massive losses quickly there could be further escalation. There is no easy way out of the Ukrainian War.
It should also be noted that Ukraine and South Africa are the only two nations to ever give up nuclear weapons after having them. In 1994 Ukraine agreed to transfer her nuclear weapons to Russia in exchange for assurances her borders, sovereignty, and independence would be respected. Considering how the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons was respected, it is hard to envision any nation ever again giving up nuclear weapons once they have them.
A full-scale nuclear exchange between two or more nations could start with a single or small number of tactical nuclear weapons used on the battlefield or against military targets only. It is hard to conceive such a situation not escalating to some more serious.
Scenario 3
A terrorist group getting their hands on a nuclear device is a real possibility in the modern world. While a terrorist group would only have a limited number of devices, the aftermath is less certain.
Testing can reveal where radioactive material came from. Once it is determined where the materials are from it is only a short step in narrowing who used the device.
Fingers will be pointed. Was the nuclear material provided to the terrorist group or was it stolen? Answers may not be believed.
A terrorist nuclear attack could also provide the opening for a much larger military nuclear attack.
While a nuclear terrorist attack would be limited, the risk of a full-scale nuclear exchange between nations heightens. And even if war is averted, the target of the nuclear attack will still face serious current and future consequences.
Scenario 4
Easier to acquire than a nuclear bomb is a dirty bomb.
Terrorists using a dirty bomb will not create as many instant casualties, but panic will help increase the headcount. Plus, radiation can spill over a large area with a dirty bomb causing serious health issues for the target.
As costs and health issues rise there is a strong possibility blame will be laid at the feet of a suspected enemy. It does not take a stretch of the imagination to see a larger nuclear exchange at some point after a dirty bomb is deployed.
Nuclear War
First I want to ask you a question. How long do you think a nuclear war will last?
If you are like most people you will say something measured in hours or days. The view is that a nuclear war will be one massive attack with a long recovery period afterwards, if anyone remains alive. We also tend to think of nuclear winter.
It seems governments with nuclear weapons around the world think in the same way. They use the strategy of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). If one side launches a nuclear attack, the other side does as well. The only way MAD works is if everyone sticks to the plan. Accidents become a real concern, as a result. But not only does MAD require a retaliatory strike, it virtually guarantees a full-scale attack. For the U.S. and Russia, that would involve 2,000 or more warheads going in either direction.
Such an exchange would forever change Earth. There are approximately 13,000 nuclear warheads around the world. (That we know of or admit to possessing.) Many are the smaller tactical type. Smaller is defined as something around the size of the nuclear blast used over Hiroshima. At 15 kilotons, tactical nuclear weapons are still very massive weapons of destruction.
In a situation where the U.S. and Russia launched nuclear weapons, it is likely China and North Korea would do the same. There is a use-it-or-lose-it attitude with nuclear weapons because nuclear weapons will be the first targets of a nuclear attack in hopes of preventing or diminishing the retaliatory response. Unfortunately, everyone knows this and will like use their weapons. The United Kingdom and France would also use their weapons. Would India or Pakistan? Israel? I’m not hopeful.
This is where we take the darkest topic most people know and turn it darker. This is where people have no idea how bad bad can get.
The U.S. currently has 5,044 nuclear weapons. 1,770 are deployed, 1,938 in reserve, and 1,336 retired, but not yet dismantled. Russia has slightly more, China about 500 with the pile growing.
Let me return to the question at the beginning of this section. How long will a nuclear war last? Here is a likely scenario.
No nuclear nation will launch every last weapon they have. Not all weapons are available for an intercontinental exchange. What does this mean?
In a full-out war where the maximum nuclear attack is engaged, the U.S. would probably launch around 1,500 weapons; Russia up to 2,000; China 200.
All those weapons in reserve will be brought online very quickly if not destroyed. And the nuclear warheads awaiting decommissioning will gain new life if we can call it that.
There are 13,000 nuclear warheads around the planet. In a max-out nuclear exchange perhaps as many as 5,000 would be launched, probably less.
Of the 8,000 remaining warheads some will be destroyed in the attacks. Let’s be optimistic and say 5,000 are destroyed. The U.S. and Russia have 1,000 each, with the remaining thousand in China, the U.K. France, India, Pakistan, Israel, and unknown players.
The first round of a nuclear war is going to be us versus them, where them is really far away.
All those remaining nuclear warheads still have damage to do. And you will be surprised at who they are used against.
Once the enemy is destroyed the guy on the other side of the planet, or at least thousands of kilometers away, is no longer the primary threat. A new enemy will arise.
In the aftermath of a nuclear war people will eventually come out of their bunkers and hiding places. Many places will be unscathed by the blast. Radiation fallout will be the issue of people outside the blast areas.
We will discuss preparing for and recovering from a nuclear war next. But for now I want to do some worldbuilding so you have an idea what the landscape will look like two weeks after Phase 1 of a nuclear exchange.
As radiation levels decline and fires subside, any supply-chain issues caused by COVID will sound like a joke. Major cities will be leveled. Electrical equipment nonfunctional. Anywhere from 10% to 50% of vehicles will no longer function. Older reports say most, if not all, vehicles will be rendered inoperable from the electromagnetic pulse (EMP).
Rebuilding will not be a matter of visiting the hardware store to get parts or calling the co-op to get fuel for your tractor. Farmers will have a daunting task. Clean water and food are a priority. There are reserves, but that is very limited. There will be fewer people, but they will not be making more food for some time.
People will congregate. Working together is what people do to accomplish difficult things. Rebuilding even the basics will be one of the greatest challenges ever to face humanity.
Over in Colorado, as an example, a group of people will discover they are short of necessary equipment to even start the rebuilding process. A group over in Iowa has excess, but like the toilet paper run of COVID, nobody is sharing. The Colorado group is smaller in number. The Iowa group is rattling their sabers to keep outsiders at bay. But Colorado has an ace up their sleeve . They have a small number of tactical nuclear weapons.
Now do you see why a nuclear war will last more than a few hours? Do you see who the targets will be in Phase 2?
It seems likely that in the aftermath of a nuclear exchange the next targets will be more local. And with one side in possession of nuclear weapons and the other side not, MAD is not an issue. A well place tactical nuke and the Iowa group is providing the Colorado group with the materials needed.
Preparing for a Nuclear War
The biggest delusion is that people somehow think they will survive a nuclear war. The odds are not in your favor.
Even if you live in a backwater unaffected by a nuclear blast, radioactive fallout will be an issue everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere.
The good news is that areas further away from the blast zone will probably suffer fewer affects from an electromagnetic pulse (EMT). There is not an agreement on the extent of an EMP. Some say every vehicle will be fried. Some say only electronics close to the blast will suffer permanent damage. It is possible one blast high in the atmosphere could turn out the lights across the continental U.S.
What we do know is that a U.S. nuclear test in 1962 called Starfish Prime over the Pacific Ocean at the height of the International Space Station caused auroras in places like New Zealand and Hawaii. Even more concerning, the EMP from the blast knocked out streetlights in Hawaii and temporarily caused a radio blackout and the phone system to go down.
If there is any good news, it is that most damage was not permanent. The bad news is that the blast was far away and only one blast. And more bad news, an EMP will limit any last minute survival plans and put the military on a difficult footing.
Supplies
The worst radiation dies down within days. Some reports say you can go outside in as little as 24 hours. This will be a very bad idea. A more common recommendation is 72 hours. Since the worst radiation decays quickly, three days might be enough time before leaving your shelter. A week is better.
Radiation will be elevated for a long time. Wind patterns will determine where the radioactive materials will fall. Radioactive iodine-131 has a half life of 8 days while cesium-137 a half life of 33 years.
You will need long-term supplies to survive a nuclear exchange. A few weeks of canned foods will not be enough. Food exposed to the elements will likely be contaminated with radiation. Ingestion of contaminated food is a sure way to health problems and death. And remember, medical services will be limited, if they exist at all.
For the first several days to a week it would be a good idea to take potassium-iodine tablets.
Even if you are not a prepper, iodine tablets and a several week reserve of food is a smart idea.
The problems start after the worst is over. Once you can safely leave your shelter for short periods of time new problems reveal themselves.
How will you know what is and is not radioactively hot? You need a geiger counter, and not the cheapest thing you can buy now. Amazon will not deliver after the nuclear event. And be sure to have an ample supply of batteries or another way of charging your geiger counter. Your life depends on it.
Communication will require a shortwave radio. Once again, the cheapest piece of junk will not do. This thing will need to last a long time. Consider batteries and charging, too. Note that a shortwave radio is for listening. Sending a message takes bigger and more expensive equipment. Plus, all the lower cost shortwave radios have antenna that are too small. You can create a much larger antenna from wire that can be found in old motors and other electrical devices.
Back to food and water. Ample food and water are the biggest early concerns. Water from a lake or stream is probably polluted. Cooking is probably impossible. Wood for a fire is probably contaminated. Canned goods and food that become edible from mere soaking in water are best choices.
Medication
The healthcare system is likely to collapse in after a nuclear exchange. Vital supplies will face shortages and manufacturers may not exists to fill the pipeline.
As much as possible, you will need to add medications to your stockpile. Over-the-counter medications are simple to add to your stash. Prescriptions are another story. Acquiring an extra supply of prescription medications will range from difficult to impossible. People with serious medical conditions face a daunting future in the aftermath of a nuclear exchange.
Some prescription medications are available in a backhanded way. Antibiotics used for fish and other animal needs is the same product as used for humans. A search of the tablets for fish and humans reveal it is the exact same product. It is relatively cheap and easy to fill your stockpile with a variety of antibiotics. There will be a heightened need for antibiotics in a post nuclear world.
It does not take long for another massive problem to arise: nuclear winter. But first we want to lay the groundwork for at least a minimal recovery from the nuclear exchange.
Recovering From a Nuclear War
Myths surround the recovery time from a nuclear event. Some people envision a world forever changed. Others think the worst is over in weeks. The truth is in the middle.
Food and water are the concern here. Contaminated farmland cannot just be planted with crops. The top few inches of soil need removing and buried somewhere. A year of sunflowers would be the best first crop as sunflowers tend to draw remaining radiation out of the soil. But you cannot eat the sunflowers! They also need to be buried. Then you can start growing crops for human consumption.
A few weeks of food supply will never be enough to take you through the several years it will take to produce a new consumable crop.
Hunting wildlife is also out as most wildlife will have died and the remaining wildlife way be contaminated. You don’t need radioactive material accumulating in your body.
Of course, all this requires working tractors and a supply of fuel. Fuel will need stabilizers because fuels like gasoline begin to degrade in as little as three months; diesel start to degrade in as little as 28 days. Be sure to keep parts for the tractor on hand, as well.
A large supply of bottled water is also needed. Even well water is considered contaminated after a nuclear war. Watering crops will be an even bigger problem. Rain may not be contaminated after a period of time. Surface water is likely contaminated with long half-life isotopes like strontium-90 and cesium-137. Plants will take up these radioactive isotopes and they will accumulate in humans that consume the contaminated plants, leading to increasing health risks.
You will also need adequate clothing and sunscreen. Clothing is for the weather and sunscreen because because after the dust and ash fall the depleted stratospheric ozone would allow ultraviolet-B to reach all the way to the surface of the Earth.
And if all this isn’t bad enough, ozone may begin forming nearer to the Earth’s surface. Ozone is toxic to plants. There goes another year of crops and seed stock is declining.
As you can see, recovery will not be easy.
Nuclear Winter
Now that we reviewed a small sample of the massive problems facing nuclear war survivors, it is time to address the monster in the aftermath: nuclear winter.
If only the science were so clear. Carl Sagan and Richard Turco predicted a nuclear winter in the early 1980s. Research has since clouded the level of nuclear winter we would actually face, with wide-ranging scenarios reflected.
Carl Sagan warned the oil fires set by Saddam Hussein during the Iraq/Kuwaiti War would cause a “global weather catastrophe.” The actual outcome was a modest temporary change to local weather only.
Just because the predicted nuclear winter did not happen when tested on a smaller scale does not mean nuclear winter is not a threat. Local temperatures in Kuwait dropped around 7°F below the average. A nuclear war is a much larger event and sure to cause greater disruptions than predicted.
539 AD
I can hear the crowd shouting that humans have lived with cold before. And that is true.
Humans survived during the last Ice Age. And a severe cold snap hit in 536 AD due to at least three large volcanic eruptions in a short period of time.
536 AD is close enough for us to have records on the cooling. Tree rings show the climate change from the volcanic winter. Summer temperatures fell as much as 4.5°F below normal in Europe. Additional eruptions extended the volcanic winter over an extended time period and caused widespread famine.
A nuclear winter would cause a greater level of cooling. The volcanic winter of 536 indicates that the cooling can extend longer than anticipated. And remember the scenarios we started this article with? Well, this high risk of additional regional nuclear exchanges could cause catastrophic weather events around the Northern Hemisphere, with lesser consequences in the Southern Hemisphere, assuming the nuclear exchanges remained north of the equator.
Humans have seen severe weather disruptions over their existence. The cold of an Ice Age and periodic periods of volcanic cooling have marked human survival. The only difference after a nuclear exchange is that the cold weather will be coupled with radiation. That could be the dealbreaker for survival of the species.
Likelihood of a Nuclear War
What are the chances we will have a nuclear war? On a daily basis the risk is very small, but not zero. Over a year the risk is still low. Higher for a decade and much higher for a century.
Humans have never wasted an opportunity to use a new weapon to its fullest extent. The atom bomb was built for the purpose of use in war. Only MAD has kept us in check. There is no guarantee the detente will continue.
It has been a mere 80 years since humans developed nuclear weapons. Such a short window is not a reasonable timeframe to determine nuclear war will never happen. The threat remains very real with the final outcome undetermined.
Fermi Paradox
Nobel prize-winning physicist Enrico Fermi asked where all the aliens were in the summer of 1950. Fermi wasn’t the first to ask the question, but his name got attached to the mystery. If there are so many worlds there has to be life out there someplace. Even intelligent life. Life well beyond humans. Life that should have visited Earth by now.
Well, the simple question has no simple answer. Space is big. Really big! Getting from here to anyplace takes some real planning.
But intelligent life in the universe does not have to travel to Earth to make itself known. There are faster and cheaper ways to communicate with species from other planets.
The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) has been looking for many decades for a signal from ET. So far silence.
Current technology allows us to potentially see certain signs of intelligence deep in space. Telescopes like Hubble and the James Webb so far have provided no conclusive proof of any life beyond our own planet.
But what about Fermi’s question? If there are billions of galaxies with billions of stars in each, intelligent life must have developed somewhere other than Earth. So where are they?
Some answers do exists. Some of these answers have a logic behind them. For example, our species cannot communicate with intelligent life that is not developed at this time or has since gone extinct. Other answers say our technology can’t pick their technology up.
The issues with communication are real. However, there are signs we should be able to see from civilizations not much more advanced than us. Even without communication, we should see evidence “they” are out there by now.
That leads us to a disturbing truth. If we cannot see advanced civilizations out there it means:
- They don’t exist (very unlikely due to sheer number of suns and planets out there), or
- There is a great filter that destroys technological civilizations before they become visible to us.
If there is a great filter it is still before us. There could be many great filters, many of which we have so far survived.
Humans as a species could exist a long time without leaving much of a trace if we keep blasting ourselves back to the Stone Age.
That is the disturbing message of the Fermi Paradox. Once a species reaches a certain level of technology they destroy themselves.
Or we could be the first. While possible, being the actual first with so many planets likely to hold life seems a stretch.
For the first time in human history we can see how humans can destroy themselves and the planet. Before we leave our mark. Now we can exterminate ourselves.
Is there a great filter before us? Will we successfully navigate such a great filter? Will we discover civilizations out there?
Or will humanity, in a fit of rage, end it all? Forever.
Only time will tell.
Wealth in the Aftermath of a Nuclear War
It seems strange to think of wealth in the face of annihilation. Yet, if the human race survives, wealth we be a part of that survival.
Wealth will look different in a post-apocalyptic world. The categories of wealth will remain and health will be the supreme wealth, while money will still play a role in everyday life.
Let’s review how wealth will evolve post-nuclear exchange.
Money
The idea that the world will revert to barter when society unravels is not born out by history.
Two books are must-read when attempting to understand money. The first is The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity by David Graeber and David Wengrow. In Dawn of Everything we learn barter was not the big player in cultures the way we once supposed. Economic activity fell under multiple headings, but barter was not the predominant form of trade anywhere. This makes sense because how often do two people have exactly what they need to trade?
The second book you need to read is Money Changes Everything: How Finance Made Civilization Possible by William N. Goetzmann. Goetzmann teaches us how money made our modern world possible. We also learn money in not merely a medium of exchange. Money is an accounting entry that led to the written language so contracts could have terms. Money and finance developed differently in different parts of the world. Of course I am giving a very abridged explanation. There is a lot of material you will want to know. Information that will help you after a nuclear exchange and in our current world order. Like I said, must-read.
Money will exists after a nuclear exchange. It may be in the form of tally sticks or some other form of currency.
More evidence exists on how an economy and money survive major dislocation. In 1966 the Irish Bank Strike should have shut down the economy. Instead, in a very short time people developed their own medium of exchange that kept a working economy. The interesting thing is that money as an accounting entry played a pivotal role and people naturally went toward the form of money without prior knowledge of the basics of what money is or how it works. (Detailed information on the Irish Bank Strike in the books listed above. A fascinating study, indeed.)
Economy
The Irish Bank Strike shows how fast people set up a working economy in the face of crisis. Of course, the post-nuclear economy will look nothing like the modern economy. A can of soup might serve as a form of money. Accounting ledgers will once again be the tool for recording economic transactions. Trade will not die.
The most difficult part of the economy after a nuclear exchange is crime. Theft and violence are sure to rise. These activities will harm economic activity.
It should be noted that the “economy” will not be this thing we work hard to grow so we create jobs. Instead, the economy is something that will exist, but not closely tracked until normalcy returns.
Return to a Civilized World
Speaking of normalcy. A return to anything resembling our modern world will be decades out and probably several generations out.
Estimates of getting the electric grid up in a few years is overly optimistic. Depending on the level of damage, the grid could take a decade or longer to repair completely.
New technologies are easier to implement when building new versus replacing. Politics will not stand in the way for solar panels or other renewable forms of electricity generation. Acquiring proper materials to build such products will be the challenge.
Regardless, life will be difficult at best. Life will be short and brutish until a proper government is created and medical resources returned to modern levels. Crime will be an issue early on because consequences will be minimal for bad behavior. Once good neighbors could turn violent.
The first generation after a nuclear exchange will not see a return to our current modern life. Perhaps in two generation. Possibly more. Or we may never return to current heights of modern living. As Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Healthcare
As mentioned above, it would be wise to stockpile pharmaceuticals. OTC medications can do a lot in providing relief and aid in healing. Prior to antibiotics, infections were the leading cause of death. President Washington died of strep throat, a common killer in his day. Nobody thinks strep throat an issue anymore. Those so-called minor illness will become a serious health crisis after a nuclear exchange. You can stockpile all the antibiotics you want. Once they lose their potency, or resistance develops, there is unlikely to be a new supply to pull from.
Healthcare is the main reason life will be short after a nuclear exchange. Some medical care options available today may be lost forever. That will mean a life sentence for many.
Food
We talked about stockpiling food. No matter how much you add to your pile the odds are the supply will be exhausted at some point. Eventually food will need to be produced.
Wildlife is a poor substitute for farmed foods. Many species will be extinct from the war and contamination is a real problem.
Farming by hand is backbreaking work few are conditioned for in our comfortable world. And farming will be more difficult than ever with nuclear fallout.
Scrapping the contaminated topsoil will take serious energy. Tractor fuels will eventually run out, that is, if tractors still work. Removing soil by hand risks radiation contamination to those doing the work. Works animals, like horses, may be unavailable. Plus horses are sometimes called hay-inhalers. Horses eat. The more they work the more they eat. Food is going to be a massive issue that gets worse as time goes by. Don’t get lulled into a false sense of security the first year post-apocalypse. Worse is coming.
If you have access to food and/or can produce more (e.g. have a greenhouse) you will be a rich person in that society as long as you have ample people to protect your assets. After a nuclear exchange you want to be in the clean food and clean water business with an eye on anything medical.
Those with food and water will control society in that dystopian future. Something to keep in mind if the missiles ever fly and you are a survivor.
Life Expectancy
Survivors of a nuclear exchange will face a much shorter life expectancy. Radiation will increase caners without any proper medical resources to survive cancer.
Simple illnesses will end life. Women will die in childbirth more than any other morbidity. Men will die in accidents and from infections.
Infant mortality will be high. Perhaps as high as 50%. Women will need to have 6-8 children in their life for enough to survive to adulthood, with each pregnancy putting the mother’s life at risk.
As time moves along some modern medicines will begin to enter the pipeline. In a generation (considered 40 years) or two, modern parts of life should begin to appear with a world population 90% lower than it was prior to the nuclear exchange.
In two generations some societies may enjoy a life expectancy near 60 years of age for men and somewhat lower for women. For pre-apocalypse life expectancies to return may take up to 10 generations.
Inequality
Another book you need to read if you really want to deal with inequality is The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century by Walter Scheidel.
Few things improve economic equality like war, revolution, societal collapse, and plague. A nuclear exchange will give us the entire gamut of all four horseman of the apocalypse.
Post-nuclear war the gini coefficient will be closer to zero than at any time in the past 10,000 years. Of course we really don’t want to improve equality that much. Still, history is clear. The four horsemen are the only way known to put a serious dent into inequality.
But don’t worry! We will go from a very low gini coefficient to a very high coefficient in short time as wealth accumulates in few hands. And electorate enforced government redistributions will not be an option. As said before, life will be brutish, hard, and short.
In several generations a more normalized gini coefficient should emerge. Those living today will not live to see that future day.
Financial Wealth
The greatest flaw of capitalism is that it tends to congregate. It makes sense. If one person saves and invests more than another the larger amount saved and invested will get more of the profits of society as a whole. Backbreaking labor has limits; capital allocation and accumulation do not.
Where will capital accumulate after a nuclear exchange? In familiar places. Food, water, and medicine top the list. The military will wield enormous power in that dystopian world.
Those controlling infrastructure will also have an advantage.
Who is at a disadvantage? Most people! Most people will be in menial jobs barely surviving. How long did the Dark Ages last? Maybe the drudgery of a post-nuclear world will not last as long. Or it might never end.
There will be massive amounts of financial wealth once civilization begins to rebuild. The wealth may congele similar to North Korea, where very few live at the top and the population lives in fear and servitude.
Oh, and this might be a good time to remind you again about the unused nuclear weapons we discussed in the open of this article. Plus, there will be some who still know how to build such weapons. If they get the equipment and resources, buckle up.
Retirement
After a nuclear exchange retirement will still happen. For the first 100 years retirement will be a process of lowering your corpse in the ground. In other words, there will be no retirement resembling anything we know today.
The old, ill, diseased, and infirm will find little comfort. Society will not have the resources for several generations for showing loving kindness. Practices called merciful for all involved will be developed.
A nuclear exchange will leave a cruel world you would not volunteer to live in. This will not be a world of Mad Max. It will be measures of order worse. And death will be the only retirement plan.
Peace Dividend?
There will be no peace dividend. Local violence will supplant any advantages from reduced risk from nuclear annihilation.
Survivors will suffer from survivor’s bias. People will get comfortable with nuclear weapons and their use. The availability of nuclear weapons will almost certainly be used more quickly. None of that stockpiling and deterrent stuff we do today. A full scale nuclear exchange makes future exchanges more likely.
Perhaps that is the answer to Fermi’s Paradox.
Hope
It has been a mere 80 years since we discovered the trick of splitting the atom. Eighty years is a blip of time compared to human history and not worthy of mention when compared to Earth history or the universe.
Still, we managed to not destroy the planet with massive nuclear weapons so far and that gives room for hope. I am an optimist. I have no choice but to believe humans will find a way to rise above the mega-violence of a nuclear inferno. I am optimistic because there are no other enviable options.
Once we figured out how to harness the energy of an atom we used that energy twice on cities. But not since! And for a short period of time the U.S. could have gone crazy nuking anyone getting close to building nuclear weapons. But we didn’t.
The U.S. settled for detente and a Cold War over a neverending nuclear war to control the world. As insane as humans are, we did not take the bait. Maybe that is the test. Maybe we are maturing as a species. Maybe.
And maybe that is the real answer to Fermi and his paradox. Intelligent species have visited and they are waiting for us to either mature enough to join the galactic community or destroy ourselves. There is a high chance they are cheering for us to survive, thrive, grow, and mature. The universe is a big place and you take friends where you can find them.
Why Write This Article
Recently my oldest daughter and I started talking about preparations in the event of a nuclear exchange. In our modern world there is a non-zero chance this could happen. Survival will be based upon planning.
Of course, this is quite depressing. When I mentioned the discussion on Twitter my tribe tried to back away. Then they got curious. Head in the sand was not a solution they subscribed to. And if it happens it is too late to start planning then!
People became curious about my thoughts on this and the planning steps I’ve taken and plan to take. People wanted answers, but my answers do not fit nicely into a Tweet. The answers do not fit nicely into a Facebook post either.
People started asking me to do a podcast on the topic. I’m open to it. I don’t have a personal podcast, but another podcaster asked if I would be a guest on his podcast on this topic. I said yes. This blog post will be a template for our discussion. I’ll let you know when the podcast goes live.
Nuclear war is an important topic of discussion. We need to prepare in case the unthinkable happens. Best of all, our plans for the most serious of catastrophes prepares us for more limited and local crises. We win either way when we plan.
And that is cause for hope.