Economy

The willingness of leaders in Washington to spend whatever is necessary, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s willingness to use unlimited resources to counter the economic dislocation, make it impossible for economic activity to descend into the chaos of the 1930s. Stimulus checks to individuals and forgivable loans to small businesses will limit the damage. Make no mistake, the damage will be acute and will linger. That lesson was taught us by The Great Depression. WWII spending proved the path necessary financially to beat the economic demon into submission. 

More proposals keep coming forward. Nearly $3 trillion in stimulus spending is already passed and working its way into the hands of individuals and businesses. It is not enough and will run short. Congress knows it and keeps pumping more stimulus measures at every whiff of a slowing economy. How much more stimulus spending will come is anyone’s guess. All I know is nobody seems to want to rein in the excesses at this time. And that is probably a good thing. The 26% of GDP deficit in 1943 is only the worst year of many with large fiscal deficits in the early 1940s. The spending was insane back then and America thrived afterwards. With the money going into the hands of Americans (back then and now) there is no doubt in this accountant’s mind the economy will pass this painful speed bump reasonably quickly with far fewer casualties than if belated measures similar to 2008-9 were used; or worse, the reluctant policies of 1929-1932.

Restarting the economy is going to be more difficult than it was stopping it. A vigorous discussion on the topic is desperately needed as many feel talking about opening the economy is akin to reigniting the infection rate when in reality the discussion is needed to formulate an appropriate and workable plan.

Talking about restarting the economy is good policy. Shutting down large swaths of economic activity was necessary for public health. And for the most part it was a fairly easy process: governors gave the order and their state ground to a halt as people sheltered in place, giving COVID-19 no viable path to propagate. The same happened around the world. It is The Day the World Stopped.

The spread of COVID-19 had slowed and in many countries has all but stopped. Concerns the virus is picking up steam where social distancing is relaxed is still a real risk. However, policies designed to slow the spread of the virus appear to be working. Multiple medical therapies hold promise and a massive effort to develop a vaccine are in progress. A vaccine would be a game changer, but realistically that is still as much as 1 ½ years away before it becomes available. The economic price would be too high, and the resulting harm to human health from lack of services, too damaging to wait over a year before reopening the closed parts of the economy.

The FIRE community has been educating the public in attaining financial independence and early retirement for a decade or so now. Whenever the topic arises it is sure to be followed by the exasperated rebuke, “We can’t all do this! Who will do the work if we all retire at 30? The economy will fail.”

The argument has a sort of logic on the surface. If everyone retired by their 30th birthday there could be a problem. A 50% savings rate could crush the economy! Right?

Or maybe not. A high national savings rate doesn’t harm the economy! The United States had a double digit savings rate in the 1950s and the economy roared. China and many other nations with vibrant economies have high savings rates. A low savings rate seems to be the real problem. In the U.S. we struggled more as our savings rate declined to its current low single digit home.

What is so bad about a tariff? It raises money to pay for the recent tax cuts. It promises to raise prices for steel and aluminum manufacturers. Some laborers stand to benefit from higher wages and with less competition, more job security. At face value it sounds like a good idea!

Of course, it only works if the tariff takes place within a vacuum. The tariffs Trump promises this week are blanket, meaning they hit steel and aluminum from every nation. When such a draconian ax is taken to the playing field there will be a response.

Normally tariffs take a long process to change. Treaties and trade agreements go through a long process of negotiations before each member nation to the agreement presents the details to their legislative branch for approval. Passage isn’t guaranteed. Several safety nets are in place to encourage each nation to honor the terms of all trade agreements.

Recent volatility and decline in the broad markets in the U.S has people wondering if the correction returned the market to typical valuations. There are several tools used to measure the market’s value. One of the most widely used is the price/earnings (P/E) ratio, derived by dividing a stock’s price by its trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings.

The P/E ratio on the S&P 500 stands at 24.46 as I write (February 11, 2018). The ratio has been above 20 since early 2015.

When you take long periods of market data and shake them together you end up with an average P/E somewhere in the mid-teens. There is no hard and fast rule stating what a fair or reasonable P/E should be though plenty of opinions exist.

Crying over spilled milk is an adage most of us first heard at a young age. Minor inconveniences are blown out of proportion when they happen. Eventually someone says you should stop crying over spilled milk

We’re living a spilled milk event as I write. The stock market and the economy have been growing steadily for about eight years now. Constant media covered convinced a large percentage of the population things were dire. We were scared shi+less and tucked our hard-earned money in the mattress. There was no way you would be tricked into investing in a bad economy.

The latest tax cuts have sent the eight year old stock market rally on a steeper trajectory after 300% gains to date. Tax cuts and interest rate reductions have a habit of sparking market rallies, but only one has anything to do with value.

To understand why the market is rallying so hard you have to understand what people expect the corporate tax cuts to do. You also need to understand if these gains are based on real increases in value or only a mirage.

Normally I don’t like to comment on a tax bill before it becomes law, hence the reason I’ve only commented once on the current bill as it wound its way through the halls and committees of Congress. Now that the bill is sitting on the President’s desk awaiting his signature I’m comfortable opening a dialog on some of the issues I see the regular press has missed.

Since the beginning I’ve called this a Swiss cheese tax bill because it has so many holes in it I can drive a truck through with my eyes closed without a worry I’ll hit a wall. I suspect many of these holes will be closed in time. Until then, fuel up the truck fellas. We’re going for a ride.